To find our chance to crit on a Swipe during a trash tanking scenario versus numerous mobs, we need to understand how the combined probability of our base crit chance stacks up.
Put another way, a 33% chance to critical strike on an attack doesn't yield a 99% chance to critical strike when attacking 3 mobs simultaneously. The actual number is closer to 69.92%, because of how combined probability works.
The formula for calculating crit chance versus multiple mobs is actually the following recurrence relation:
Where n = number of mobs, and c = chance to crit versus one mob.
This formula yields the following values for a range of base critical strike chance:
See also: spreadsheet for critical strike chance versus multiple mobs.
Thats awesome I love it! Its really cool to find a smart blogger who gives us some math & numbers, but leaves the conclusions up to us.
ReplyDeleteexcelent post. however it look a little better if you includ maul into the equation. Then you will get 5 hits on 3 mobs = 83% chance for a crit.
ReplyDeletewith added haste we might even attack faster than the mobs, giving us even better chance.
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